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One often reads online that 2026 is the new 2016. Whether that is really the case remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: over the past ten years, a great deal has happened (and, incidentally, in September 2026 Itamilradar itself will mark its tenth anniversary -September 2016 marked the launch of Itamilradar’s Twitter account-). What we do know for sure is that exactly ten years ago the first ATR P-72A entered service with the Italian Air Force. The aircraft was conceived as a gap-filler, meant to bridge the transition between the legacy ASW capability based on the Breguet Atlantique — which Italy chose not to upgrade, unlike France — and a future, more advanced maritime patrol platform. As often happens in Italy, however, temporary solutions tend to become permanent ones. Today, the P-72A still represents the core asset ensuring Italy’s maritime surveillance and patrol missions for the Air Force, operated in close coordination with the Navy, which deploys its own personnel on these aircraft. What the P-72A does not provide, however, is an anti-submarine warfare capability: the aircraft is not certified for ASW, a mission now entirely delegated to the Navy through its surface units and helicopters. Much has been written and said about the aircraft that should eventually replace the P-72A, yet as of today there is still nothing on paper that clearly defines which platform will be selected or what the timeline might look like. That said, a fairly clear idea seems to be taking shape. The options currently discussed are essentially four, listed here from the least to the most likely. The first is a Leonardo P-27J ASW, a hypothetical ASW-configured version of the C-27J Spartan. While this would be a national solution, it would suffer from severe limitations in terms of airframe size, internal volume, noise levels and operational range. These constraints make it an unattractive option and, fortunately, one that now appears to have been shelved. The second option is an Airbus A321 ASW, to be developed jointly with France. This would be a fully European solution, a factor that in today’s strategic climate is far from irrelevant. Beyond the technical aspects, however, the main issue is that the project exists only on paper. Timelines, costs and industrial risks remain highly uncertain, making this a theoretically valid but practically unlikely choice. The third candidate is the Boeing P-8A Poseidon. Until recently, this seemed the most straightforward option. At Sigonella, where Italy’s P-72As are based, there is one of the largest US Navy hubs worldwide, hosting a significant number of P-8s. This would allow for shared maintenance infrastructure and deep operational integration with the United States. Moreover, the P-8 is effectively the NATO standard ASW aircraft, having been selected by the United Kingdom, Norway, Germany and likely Denmark as well. An acquisition of this kind would also be politically welcome in Washington, something many countries are keenly aware of today. The main drawback lies in the limited scope for national customization, as it is a strictly US-controlled platform. The fourth option is the Kawasaki P-1. Until a few years ago, the idea of acquiring a Japanese aircraft, used exclusively by Japan, would have seemed exotic, if not unrealistic. Today, with increasingly close military-industrial ties between Italy and Japan — as demonstrated by the GCAP programme — this option no longer looks far-fetched. Such an agreement could involve the sale of M-346 aircraft, or a dedicated variant, to Japan, while allowing extensive customization of the P-1 with a strong role for Italian industry, Leonardo in particular. At present, this appears to be the most concrete option, and announcements have repeatedly been described as imminent. So far, however, no official announcements have been made. The geopolitical shifts of recent months may have at least partially reshuffled the deck. It is therefore difficult to predict when a formal decision will be announced, especially considering that while Italy’s multi-year defence planning acknowledges the need to acquire a new maritime patrol aircraft, it does not yet allocate clearly defined funding for the programme. The hope remains that 2026 will indeed echo 2016 — if not with the entry into service, which would inevitably take years, then at least with the long-awaited announcement of the true successor to the Atlantique, an aircraft that many still, quietly, miss.

Source: https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/01/22/ ... d-asw-gap/